By Jimmy Swira
For years, Eskom’s generation fleet had become closely associated with low availability and long periods of outages. This was at a huge cost to heavy industry in South Africa and the region that need a consistent supply of electricity for their respective equipment.
Recovery
So, one would understand that under the organisation’s Generation Recovery Plan, the primary objective to manage this challenge has, to a large part, focused on recovery. In other words, it was all about restoring performance by bringing failed plants into service and reducing breakdowns.
Therefore, recovery was the baseline from which improved reliability could be built.
Towards Reliability
Encouragingly, the latest performance figures indicate that the generation fleet may be moving beyond recovery and towards reliability, with performance improvements being sustained over time. This is what emerges from comparing financial year-to-date performance using the parameters of Energy Availability Factor (EAF) and Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF).
Energy Availability Factor (EAF)
From 1 April to 6 August 2025, EAF was 60.05%, while during the corresponding period in 2026, it was 67.24%. This represents a significant improvement of 7.19 percentage points.
Moreover, what is worth noting is that, compared with the same period three years ago, there has been an improvement of 11.9%, with approximately 5.9 GW of generating capacity returned to the grid. More than 85% of the coal fleet is reportedly operating at EAF levels between 70% and 92%.
Context is important.
It should be clarified that, in isolation, a higher EAF does not necessarily prove that the fleet has become reliable. However, when combined with the reduction in unplanned capacity losses, the figures show improved fleet performance.
Average Unplanned Outages
There has been a significant drop in unplanned outages, which have been one of Eskom’s biggest pain points. Between 31 July and 6 August 2026, unplanned outages averaged 7,718 MW, compared with 10,758 MW during the same period a year earlier.
This should not be underestimated. It represents a 28.3% reduction, which is equivalent to 3,039 MW of generating capacity.
The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF)
This reduction in average unplanned outages is reflected in the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which fell from 22.60% to 16.12%.
What does the reduction in unplanned losses imply?
This reduction in unplanned losses is significant from a reliability perspective because fewer generating units are being unexpectedly removed from service, alleviating the pressure placed on the remaining fleet.
In a word, if recovery is essentially about restoring performance, and reliability is about sustaining it, then Eskom appears to be moving in that direction.
Customer Experiences
For sure, nowhere is this improvement reflected more clearly than in customer experiences.
South Africa has now gone 448 consecutive days without load shedding. This is some record. It is a feat that would have been considered far-fetched seven years ago, when outages were endemic.
The bigger test
The most important question, from a reliability perspective is: Can the current level of performance be sustained for the long haul?
It is safe not to get carried away, though.
Indisputably, a year of improved performance is encouraging. However, improved performance over a period does not prove that the fleet has entered a new era of sustained reliability. One swallow does not make summer.
By and large, the bigger test is whether the reduction in unplanned outages can be maintained while ageing assets operate under demanding conditions. The jury is still out.
